Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
